Corn futures ended Monday, November 9, in the red as traders trimmed positions before a major government report. Contracts closed 2 to 3 cents lower at the final bell. December corn also posted its weakest settlement since late June. As a result, the grain market enters Tuesday’s USDA release on its back foot, with sellers clearly in control.

How Corn Futures Closed on Monday

December corn lost 2¼ cents to settle at $4.39¼ per bushel. Meanwhile, the March contract slipped 3 cents to $4.52¼. During the session, front-month prices briefly touched $4.38, their lowest level since early July. In the cash market, the national average corn price dipped 1½ cents to $4.05¾.

There was one bright spot, however. USDA confirmed a private export sale of 110,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico, all for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. Still, a single sale was not enough to lift prices ahead of the report.

Why Traders Are Cautious Before the USDA Report

USDA will publish its November Crop Production and WASDE reports on Tuesday, November 10. Analysts expect the agency to lower its national corn yield by roughly 0.9 bushels to 180.3 bushels per acre. That cut would shrink total production by about 72 million bushels.

On paper, a smaller crop should support prices. Even so, several factors are holding the market back:

• Strong South American outlook: Growing confidence in crops from Brazil and Argentina is adding to global supply.
• Slow export pace: Analysts think USDA could also cut its export forecast, which may offset a lower yield.
• Bearish fund positioning: Speculative funds have recently flipped to a net short position in corn.
• Seasonal harvest pressure: Autumn harvest sales usually weigh on prices at this time of year.

In addition, trust in USDA numbers has been shaken this season. The agency corrected a data processing error in its September report that had affected corn yield estimates. Consequently, farm groups and traders are watching Tuesday’s figures with extra scrutiny.

Corn Harvest Progress Falls Behind Average

The weekly Crop Progress report showed the U.S. corn harvest at 81% complete as of November 8. That figure jumped 7 points from the previous week. Nevertheless, it still trails the five-year average of 86%. Traders had also expected a slightly faster pace of around 84%.

Progress varies widely across the Corn Belt. For example, Indiana growers have pulled ahead of their normal pace. Other states, by contrast, are still catching up after a slower autumn.

Export Data Shows a Mixed Picture

USDA’s weekly inspections report showed 905,000 metric tons of corn shipped in the week ending November 5. That volume landed in line with trade expectations. However, total shipments for the marketing year still trail last year’s pace.

Overseas competition matters too. Ukrainian analysts recently lowered their country’s corn export outlook to 18 million tonnes, down from 20 million. Therefore, buyers may lean a bit more on U.S. supplies in the months ahead.

What to Watch After the Report

• Whether USDA trims the national yield as much as analysts expect
• Any change to the U.S. export forecast
• Updated South American production estimates
• How funds react if the numbers surprise either way

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did corn futures fall on Monday?
Traders squared positions ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. Strong South American supply and a slow export pace also added pressure.

What is the expected U.S. corn yield in the November USDA report?
Analysts expect roughly 180.3 bushels per acre, down about 0.9 bushels from the previous estimate.

How much of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested?
The harvest was 81% complete as of November 8, behind the five-year average of 86%.

Did any export sales support corn prices?
Yes. USDA reported a 110,000-metric-ton sale to Mexico, but it did not offset the wider selling pressure.

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